Changing Sites

I will be changing sites with the new one opening up most likely on Friday. The new url will be chop-n-change.com and it will be myself as well as two other writers. This is going to be a great blog because we will have lots of different perspectives. Come check it out when it opens.

Redman Strong as Braves Top Jays

Newly signed Mark Redman definitely put down some of my fears about Hampton's replacement with a very solid game yesterday. Redman went 3 innings, gave up 3 hits, walked no one, and struck out two while holding the Blue Jays to only run. Those three hits came off of two bunt hits and a triple that a diving Andruw Jones failed to catch. The only concern was his command after hitting two batters with a new cutter that the veteran southpaw has been trying to add to his arsenal. In all this was a very good performance for a pitcher that has spent the last few weeks throwing in his basement. The pitching was just all around solid beyond Redman also. Rafael Soriano continued to put down the off-season worries after he was reported to be topping out at 91 mph and got rocked in winter league, by pitching one perfect inning with a strikeout. Cormier added 4 innings with 3 hits and 5 strikeouts and McBride nailed it down with a perfect inning and 2 Ks. At the plate, Andruw Jones and Brian McCann went back to back off of Dustin McGowan in the sixth with a two-run and solo homer, and TJ Bohn added an RBI single in the 8th inning. The Braves, who improved to 7-3 will take on the defending champion Cardinals behind Kyle Davies on Sunday.

Schuerholz Finds Hampton's Replacement

Just a day after the news first broke that Mike Hampton had set himself back at least two months, the Braves agreed to terms with 2006 All-Star starter Mark Redman, signing him to a minor league deal. Don't get too excited about the All-Star part, he went 11-10 with a 5.71 ERA for the Royals last season so making it was merely a formality. This may not be too bad though. Between Cormier and Redman, we should be able to find some quality starts and in 2003 he did post a 3.59 ERA in 190 innings on route to a World Series ring for the Marlins. A switch to the NL should help although he is going into the toughest hitting divisions, but if he can keep his ERA under 4 we should be fine. The contract will pay him $750,000 if he is on the major league roster, and he can earn an extra $500,000 in start-based incentives. Redman is slated to throw 3 innings tomorrow versus the Blue Jays.

James Looks Good as Braves Down Pirates

The Braves improved to 6-2 in the Spring with Friday's 8-5 win over the Pirates (Laroche didn't play). Chuck James, Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, and Chad Paronto all made good impressions in the game. James threw 3 shutout innings with 2 Ks and 0 BBs, while Kelly Johnson and Ryan Langerhans continued their bids to start at their respective positions. Johnson went 2/4, Langerhans went 2/3, and both added homers to the win. Willy Aybar went 3/5, but it seems like no matter what he does, he will be backing up Chipper and not starting at second. Chad Paronto may have done the most so far this spring to solidify a spot. He was a fringe player that had an advantage as a ground ball guy out of the pen, but the circle change that he added over the off-season is making him look like more and more of a lock for one of the spots in the pen. He has now thrown 5 innings in the spring with 5 Ks, no BBs, and only 3 hits.

Hampton Out Until at Least Mid-May

We were all hoping it wouldn't happen, but it did. Mike Hampton strained his oblique today, while taking a swing in batting practice and in the best case scenario, he won't be back until mid-May. The team has said that the veteran lefty will need at least a month of rest, before building up his arm strength, and Hampton thinks that will take another month. At least it wasn't the elbow that got injured, and he'll actually have quite a bit more time to rest his surgically repaired elbow, which could help. Both Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson felt the effects of a strained oblique during 2006.

If you have been reading recently, I predicted pretty average stats for Hampton, so this probably shouldn't hurt too much. Without looking outside the organization to fill the whole, there are 5 options.

1. Lance Cormier- He was already in the running for the fifth spot, so this could give him a shot. He did well in a couple starts at the end of last season and has a 3.60 ERA with 5 Ks in 5 IP this spring.

2. Oscar Villareal- It would surprise me to see this considering how well Villareal did as our long man last year. He did make a couple of emergency starts last season and pitched well, but his place still seems to be the long man, who can fill in for one start here and there.

3. Anthony Lerew- I don't know if his endurance is still there after relieving last year, but he has been mentioned in the competition for the fifth spot. He re-worked his mechanics and brings a mid-90s fastball but I don't think his secondary stuff warrants a spot in the rotation until he proves otherwise.

4. Macay McBride- Bobby recently toyed around with the idea of moving the lefty back to the rotation, but there are two factors that make me skeptical. The first being he just gets smacked around by righties, and the second is how rare it is to have a lefty capable of holding left-handers to a BAA below .180, but he is one of two in our pen. That gives Bobby an incredible way to mix and match in the end of games.

5, Matt Harrison- People said he would only get a shot if there was an injury and here we are. He only has around 80 innings outside of A-Ball, but his command is what would carry him. He did get smacked around in his first Grapefruit League action, but Bobby seems to like what he has seen so far from the 21-year old. He is definitely still an underdog.

I personally think that the amount of time he will be out doesn't warrant a trade with the options we have. Mark Bowman mentioned that it could be an option though. The Dodgers, Tigers, and Phillies all have starters to trade and Mark Redman is a free agent option that could probably be picked up on a minor league contract. He was an all-star last season, but I doubt he will provide the results of some of our other options.

Smoltz Has Close Call

The Braves season, for a few precious moments looked like it was going to take a serious turn for the worst. In Wednesday's spring training game against the Tigers, John Smoltz was hit in the chest by a rocket off the bat of Carlos Guillen. Very fortunately, John was able to get up and keep pitching with only a bruise to show for it. After the game he was sporting dual ice packs; one on his right shoulder like normal, and the other covering the bruise. The only problem he said, was he wouldn't be swinging a golf club for a while. Bobby Cox seemed optomistic that Smoltz won't miss any starts, but it seems he will miss a couple of his workouts over the next week. This is the second time this spring that one of the Braves was smashed in the chest without any serious injuries as Kelly Johnson was hit in the chest by a Pete Orr liner earlier in the week. Hopefully we make it to opening day with all our players alive.

Tomahawk Mania Merging

I have been invited to join in a conglomerate of three bloggers to make a Braves "superblog" of sorts. I will be doing it with two other Braves fans, one who writes a weekly column for Hardballtimes.com . I haven't yet decided whether or not to continue this site, but when I get the details about the other site I will make sure to post them up here so you guys can check it out.

Rocker Named in Steroid Ring

The same investigation that produced former Brave Gary Matthew's Jr.'s name this past week reportedly has implicated John Rocker, former gold medal and WWE wrestler Kurt Angle, and former major leaguer David Bell for recieving performance-enhancing drugs from Applied Pharmacy in Mobile, Ala. I couldn't uncover any information as to when Rocker recieved the drugs allegedly, but it could explain quit a bit about his roid rage-esque behavior. I know he was trying to make a comback recently and actually went to see the Long Island Ducks play against the Bridgeport Bluefish while he was still on the Ducks so this may more recent.

Braves Demolish the Nats

On Monday, the Braves absolutely laid a beat down on the Washington Natinonals, winning 14-5. Lance Cormier was very impressive in his start, pitching three scoreless innings with one hit, one walk, and three strikeouts. Things got interesting in the ninth when former Braves firstbaseman, Robert Fick came to bat after hitting a three-run homer off Matt Harrison in the fifth. Mike Gonzalez threw high and tight and after Fick flew out, the two exchanged words before Terry Pendleton came out to make sure nothing worse happened. Here are what some of the players battling for spots did:

P. Orr- 1/2, 1 BB, 2 R
B. Harris- 1/1, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 RBI
G. Blanco- 2/2, 1 BB
C. Sammons- 1/3
C. Wilson- 2/3, 1 2B, 1 R, 3 RBI
M. Diaz- 1/2, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 RBI
T. Pena- 2/4, 1 RBI

L. Cormier- 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 3 K
M. Harrison- 1 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 ER, 1 K
C. Paronto- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 K

-One other note is that the Braves expect Rafael Soriano to be pitching in a game at some point this week after holding him out as a precautionary measure for some slight shoulder soreness. It sounds like nothing severe and should only hold him out a couple days, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Tomahawk Mania Mailbag

I want to start a mailbag feature on this site, so if you have any question about the Braves, drop me a line at wschaffer1@gmail.com, include your first name and last initial with your question. I do this mainly because I want to provide my fellow Braves fans with a respectable mailbag since I can't stand Mark Bowman after I read him compare Yunel Escobar to Miguel Tejada and call him one of the best prospects in the game. Send your emails, and as soon as I have enough I will answer them on a post.

Hampton Could See Action on Friday

After Mike Hampton's last bullpen session, he didn't sound too optimistic about seeing any action soon, but after Saturday's that all changed. Hampton was scheduled to throw today in a bullpen session and if that went well then we could see Hampton starting Friday against the Pirates. He says it would only be for one inning, but it would make all of us Braves fans much more confident that both he and Kyle Davies, who had groin surgery in '06 are able to throw in a real game situation. The plan is still to have him ready to throw five innings by opening day, so they will take it easy on his elbow.

Hampton mentioned that he could be just as effective throwing 86 mph as he was before the injury, so we will definitely not see the Hampton we are used to. He will rely a lot more on location and off-speed pitches. That part is a little scary. Chuck James makes his high-80's fastball work with a great change, but Hampton doesn't really possess an off-speed pitch at that caliber. I would assume that he is working on locating his change better during spring training, so maybe he comes back near his pre-injury form, but I would doubt it. My projection for Hampton is 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in 26 starts with 150 IP. He would make himself a bit above average for a fourth starter so you can't complain and the depth of the pen is good enough to make up for the lack of innings.

Top Prospect: 6-10

6. RHP Joey Devine- Devine was taken in the the first round (27th) out of NC State in the 2005 draft. One thing that the Braves liked when they took this college closer was how polished he was, and in fact he debuted in the same year as he was drafted after throwing 26 minor league innings. For being so polished, Devine hasn't had any major league success with an 11.12 ERA in his time with Atlanta. Devine didn't get off to a very good start with Braves fans, he is the pitcher who gave up the 18th inning homerun to Chris Burke to send the Braves home in the NLDS in 2005. In 2006 he made the team out of camp, but a nagging back injury basically forfeited his season. Devine has the stuff of a very good future closer and many people thought he would get that chance rather quickly before the Braves acquired Bob Wickman, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano. Devine combines mid-90's heat that can touch 97 mph and an absolutely filthy slider, plus his almost side arm delivery hides the ball well. When he is on, he can dominate, and after his September callup he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings, allowing 3 hits, walking four, and striking out 8. Unfortunately those walks are what have really stood out so far in his pro career. His last year in college, he walked 1.85 per 9 IP. He has 5.23 walks per 9 in his minor league career and 11.12 in his major league career. If he impresses in spring training, he has a chance to break camp with the team and if he doesn't and pitches well at Richmond, it won't be long before we see him back up.

7. RHP Neftali Feliz- Feliz could very well jump to the top of the Braves prospects in a season or two. The 18-year old Dominican has a pefect pitcher's build at 6'3" 180 lbs. Feliz works comfortably and easily in the 94-97 mph range with his fastball and touches triple digits. At 17 years of age in his first season of pro ball last year, he tossed 29 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 20 hits, 14 walks, and 42 strikeouts, while holding batters to a .192 average for the Gulf Coast Braves. Comparrisons immediately shift to Joel Zumaya for his size, velocity, and ability to overpower and dominated opposing hitters. The only negatives were his walks last year, but for a 17-year old power pitcher, you can't really expect much better. Feliz will probably add 20-30 lbs. onto his frame by the time he is ready for the majors, but he is still far away. It is unclear whether he will start or become a full time reliever, as he 5 starts, and 6 relief appearences last year. Definitetely a guy who is going under the radar and has huge potential down the road.

8. 1B Scott Thorman- Yes, he still counts as a prospect because he is 12 ABs shy of the limit. Thorman was the 30th overall pick in 2000 out of Preston High School in Ontario. Thorman has all but locked up the starting first base job for the Braves this season. He is a 6'3" firstbaseman with tons of raw power. Thorman has gone in a very strange pattern for his pro career. He has spent at least part of two years in A+, AA, and AAA and the first year has always been pretty average at best, while the second year would lead you to believe he is the next great power hitter. His first year in A+ he posted a .243/.311/.391 line; the second year it was .299/.358/.461. His first year at AA it was a .252/.326/.406, while the second year he hit .306/.360/.506. In 2005, his first year at AAA he put up a .276/.313/ .438 line, while last year he tore AAA up with a .298/.360/.508 line. Hopefully that proves true for the majors after he hit only .234/.263/.438 in 2006. Thorman could prove to be a .280+ 30 HR guy down the road with average defense.

9. 1B Kala Ka'aihue- The name sets him apart, but this Samoan is a very good, very underrated power hitting firstbaseman. In my opinion he will supplant Thorman as the future of the Braves at first. Ka'aihue, the native of Kailua, Hawaii was first drafted by the Red Sox in the 22nd round in 2003, opted not to sign or re-enter the draft, and was signed by the Braves as a free agent in 2005. Ka'aihue certainly has the pedigree; his father, Kala Ka'aihue Sr. played 10 major league seasons. In two pro seasons, Kala has compiled a .286 average, .397 OBP, 36 HRs, and 105 RBIs. He is 6'2", has already filled out to 230 lbs, and packs a lot of power. He has already been compared to Andres Gallaraga, so you know what kind of talent we are working with. This past season alone he hit .281 with 28 HRs, 80 RBIs, a .407 OBP, and a .550 SLG. That is an impressive stat line before you take into account that before me moved up to pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach, he batted .329 with 15 HRs, a .458 OBP, and a .614 SLG. Ka'aihue will start at either Myrtle Beach or Mississippi this year and could force his way into the lineup by 2009.


10. RHP Jamie Richmond- Richmond is probably the best control pitcher I have ever seen, and put up fantastic stats at Danville in '06. Richmond went 7-1 with a 1.21 ERA, 52 Ks, and FOUR walks. That is not a typo, his BB/p was 0.54 and since he allowed only 51 hits in his 67 IP, he posted a WHIP of 0.82. He really does look a lot like Matt Harrison, but from the right side and at 6'4" 190 lbs, there is room for him to fill out and possibly add a bit more velocity onto his low 90's fastball. I would expect the Braves to increase his work load a bit more, but they seem to be handling him carefully. He'll be 21 next year and starting in Rome. He is one of the lower level, relatively unknown pitching prospects the Braves have that are potential difference makers in the future.

Francoeur's Contract Renewed

The Braves renewd Jeff Francouer's contract this weekend, and he will recieve a raise from $384,500 to $427,000 after a season that saw him hit .260 with 29 HRs and 103 RBIs, as well as being one of the top two out run producers in baseball. This amount is a little less than the Braves are thought to have originally offered the right fielder but as a zero to three player he, as well as Brian McCann, who recieved a raise to $444,000 last week have no leverage. The media seems to be making this out as though it caused a rift between Francouer and the team, but all reports have him saying he understands how it works, and that no matter how much or little he is paid, he will still play the same.

If you don't understand baseball contracts, for the first three years a player is in the majors, the club has complete control over their contract, so they can give a player the minimum or any amount higher than that. That is why you see someone like Ryan Howard, who just came off a 58 HR season making only $900,000. Between the fourth and the sixth year they become arbitration eligible. This means the two parties (the team and the player) submit numbers for how much they think they should be paid. If the numbers are close enough, they can usually work out a number in the middle ground, but if not they go to an arbitrator that hears a case from both for their amount and makes a decision. Both players and teams like to avoid this, because this means someone representing the team will have to get up and basically point out a players bad points. The new big thing it looks like is buying out the arbitration years or the arbitration years and the first couple years of free agency with a long term deal. Again these deals are usually small because the player still has little leverage. Matt Cain, who signed a four-year deal with an option for a fifth is an example. He will take more money in the next couple years but will make less than he would in the final years. The Mets this offseason signed both Jose Reyes and David Wright to long-term deals that knock out the first couple years of free agency as well.

This has led to a lot of fans, writers, and the like wondering if McCann, James, and Francouer will recieve similar contracts as well. I have yet to see John Schuerholz actively shoot down the idea in an interview, but reports are saying that the Braves are not working on one right now with any of those three.

Aybar Arrives at Camp

The second Brave to have visa problems, Willy Aybar, arrived at camp on Saturday. Aybar looks to be headed for a role as Chipper's backup, which should get him plenty of at bats this year. Aybar will be working out at every infield position except first and in left field. If he is at least decent in all four positions then we have a very good looking bench with him and new Brave Chris Woodward, who would both be capable of playing secondbase, shortstop, thirdbase, and leftfield. Versatility is a great commodity to have coming off the bench, especially versatile players that can hold their own offensively too.

One of the possibilities that still exists is to move Aybar in as the full time secondbaseman and leadoff hitter. I am definitely a fan of that and then keep Kelly on as a leftfield/second base lefty bat off the bench. Going into camp it certainly looks like it is Johnson's job to lose though, but in Aybar's major league career while leading off he is a .321 hitter and boasts a .421 OBP (148 ABs). People seem to forget that this battle isn't exclusively between Martin Prado and Kelly Johnson; Orr and Aybar definitely could jump into the starting lineup if they really impress this spring.

Cox to Retire After 2008

Jeff Schultz at AJC broke this today. When a reporter jokingly asked if Bobby would manage the next 10 years, he responded by saying "Not many more. This year and next year, and that's it". This signals the end of an era for the Braves and we are yet to hear if Scheurholz will also leave once his contract is up or when his good friend Bobby retires. This will lead to a lot of speculation about who the next manager will be this and next season. The main two in-organization candidates have to be Bullpen Coach Eddie Perez and Hitting Coach Terry Pendleton. While Perez has been thought of as a future manager since his playing days as Greg Maddux's personal catcher, he may get that opportunity a little earlier than most expected. I think he automatically becomes the favorite since he has already acted as a player-coach in AAA last year and will have two years of experience in the pen. Cox is fifth on the all time managerial wins list with 2,171 wins and needs only 23 to catch Sparky Anderson for fourth so he most likely will end up trailing only Connie Mack (3,731 wins), John McGraw (2,763 wins), and Tony Larussa (2,297 wins and counting). It will be hard to see the end of a Braves era and a streak of division titles that will most likely never be matched in any professional sports.

Wickman Setting Up a Possibility?

Ever since John Scheurholz signed Bob Wickman to a 1-year $6.5 million extension for the '07 season everyone assumed he would be the closer. When the Braves acquired Rafael Soriano from the Mariners and Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates, two undoubtedly more dominant relievers, that notion still didn't change. After Wickman's first action of the Spring on Friday he left open the possibility of setting up for either Gonzalez or Soriano.

"If I am setting up game 5 of the World Series and someone else is closing,
and we win, I'm happy."

"Hopefully when the bell rings [for the season], I'm closing. But I don't
mind setting up."

I respect the big man as a closer and he is one of the best competitors I have ever seen, but this wuold make our team better. Gonzalez was 24/24 in saves opportunities last year and for the past two years, Soriano has proven to be one of the top setup men in the American League and baseball. Wickman has earned the right it seems to close if he wants and that is something Bobby will respsect if he asks but this could add a couple wins to the total when all is said and done.

Braves Down Pirates, Laroche in Ten

The Braves improved to 2-0 in the Grapefruit League with a ten-inning win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. This was the first time Atlanta has faced Laroche, who was traded to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez this offseason. Lets me start off by saying, Smoltz was downright nasty. Smoltz threw 19 of his 23 pitches for strikes with three strikeouts in two scoreless innings and actually threw a knuckleball to Laroche on the first pitch he saw, which bounced before the plate. Yunel Escobar couldn't have helped his chances of making it as a utility man after he failed to bunt Brent Lillibridge and TJ Bohn over and eventually lined into a double play that cost the Braves a chance to win it in the bottom of the ninth. Here are some other notables who are fighting for a spot and what they did:

K. Johnson- 0/2
M. Diaz- 1/2
I. Franko- 2/2, 1 2B, 1 RBI
Y. Escobar- 0/1
P. Moylan- 2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K, O R

Second Base Competition Heating Up?

During batting practice before the Braves faced the Pirates on Friday, Pete Orr hit a liner that hit Kelly Johnson about two inches south of killing him. Luckily it will just leave a nasty bruise but this is the second time someone in the Braves organization has had a near-death experience. Obviously this wasn't intentional but that sounds like an easier way to sort out these position battles. Like a two men enter, one leaves kind of thing.

Top Prospects: 1-5

Baseball America's release of the top 100 prospect lists seems to be a perfect way to move into Tomahawk Mania's top Braves Prospects. I will be talking about the top ten in two parts, but you can find the whole list one the right side of the page. Atlanta, throughout that past 15 years has always seemed to annually have one of the best farm systems in the game under the watchful eye of John Schuerholz. In 2005, the Braves graduated 18 prospects in the year of the Baby Braves led by Kyle Davies, Jeff Francouer, and Brian McCann. Now the Braves system has dropped all the way to 14th in baseball, according to the Baseball Prospectus organizational reports, but there is hope. While there are not many impact prospects in the higher level, there are lower level players, in particular pitchers, who have very high ceilings.

1. 2B Eric Campbell- This 21 year old can thank Van Pope for the number one ranking. The emergence of Pope's bat along with his superior defense pushed Campbell over to second this winter and a future .290 hitter with potentially 30 or even 40 HRs at second base is a bit harder to find then at third. He took a big step forward defensively last year, although he still isn't a future gold glover. After being taken in the second round of the 2004 draft, Campbell broke out in '05 with a .313 average and a .634 SLG and continued that this past year hitting .296 with a .517 SLG and 22 HRs for Rome. Campbell will have a huge test in 2007, as he will likely start the year in the pitcher-friendly confines of Myrtle Beach. If he keeps progressing at this level then we could see him in Atlanta at some point in 2009.

2. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia- Saltalamacchia stands to drop his stock in the same way Campbell's shot up. I think it is fair to say that McCann has secured his future behind the plate in Atlanta, so Salty will either make a move to the outfield or firstbase, or stay behind the plate and keep his value up as possible trade bait. After conquering Myrtle Beach in '05 with a .314 average and 19 HRs, Saltalamacchia struggled through wrist injuries the majority of last season and focused a lot more of his time on improving his defense behind the plate. There is a silver lining though; in his last 22 games, Salty hit .310 with 5 HRs , and in the Arizona Fall League he hit .565 with 3 HRs in 23 ABs. If he stays behind the plate and regains his form this year at Richmond then he very well could land himself in the top spot next year.

3. SS Elvis Andrus- The .265/.324/.362 line that Elvis posted in 2006 isn't too impressive at first sight, until you take into account that he was a 17 year old in A-Ball. Not sure too many high school juniors could keep up with that. In his short pro career, Andrus has drawn comparisons to Jimmy Rollins, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Tejada, so no one knows exactly how he will turn out, only that he will be really good. Andrus has very good speed at this point, but lacks the base running skills to put it into use with only 23 SBs and 15 CSs last year. There a couple prospect experts who think he'll fill out his 6' frame and become more of a power hitting shortstop with less speed. Right now he has defensive tools that haven't translated into success yet. His range, hands, and arm strength all rate as plus tools. Andrus has got a couple more years in the minors before we can even think about seeing him in Atlanta, but by the time Renteria’s time is up in 2010 ('09 is a club option), he might be ready to take up the reigns.

4. SS Brent Lillibridge- He may in time prove to be the most valuable long-term commodity acquired in the Adam Laroche trade. Lillibridge is one of the more under appreciated prospects in the game, as he is a bit old for his league at 23 in A+, but he is a supremely talented athlete. Lillibridge has the same problem as Saltalamacchia in that he is not #1 on the organizational depth chart at his natural position. Many scouts believe that a move to center is a possibility with his speed, and the possibility of Andruw Jones leaving looming overhead. Lillibridge combines good contact, patience, power, and great speed and base running ability (53 SBs in 66 attempts in '06) so he seems to be headed for a leadoff role. He is a good defender, who tries to hard and makes too many errors because of that, but that should go away with experience. His power dropped from 11 HRs in 274 ABs in A-ball to 2 HRs in 201 ABs in A+ and there are quite a few scouts who believe that his 2 HRs may be more indicative of his ability. Down the road we could see a .280-.290 hitter with double digit HRs, 40+ steals, and a great OBP, which would make for a great leadoff hitter. If Andruw does leave after this season and Brent moves out to center, then we could see him starting as early as 2008. Lillibridge has been good for a nice laugh so far in his short Braves career.

5. LHP Matt Harrison- The 6'4" Harrison was the Braves 3rd round pick in the 2003 amateur draft out of a high school in North Carolina. Baseball America recently called him the closest thing to Tom Glavine since Glavine signed with the Mets. While I would say that Chuck James takes that, it gives you a good idea what we are working with. He, along with Jamie Richmond are the two Braves control pitchers. Harrison combines a fastball that works right around 90 mph along with a good change and curve. He tired towards the end of 2006 in Mississippi but posted good stats, going 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA, 114 Ks and only 33 BBs in almost 160 innings of work. Harrison will probably earn a spot in the rotation out of spring training but if there is an injury, which seems very likely this season, he could force his way into the Braves plans a bit early.

2007 Braves: Pitching

Atlanta’s pitching last year was certainly the weak link. Mike Hampton was out all year, Tim Hudson turned in a mediocre season, while John Thompson, Kyle Davies, Horacio Ramirez, and Chris Reitsma all missed significant time due to injuries. This spring brings with it a rejuvenated sense of hope after last year’s staff posted a 4.60 ERA to go with the league’s worst save percentage.

A healthy rotation is part of this hope. Smoltz will be the ace once again and with a pen to hold his leads, I am going to go out on a limb and say he wins 20. This entire season may hinge on our two and three starters though. Hudson took a turn for the worst last year. After posting a 3.52 ERA his first year in Atlanta, he plummeted in ’06 with a 4.86 ERA. Hudson says his new conditioning will help and we can only hope he returns to form. Hampton is probably the biggest question mark on this team and his recent comments aren’t too encouraging. Hampton hasn’t pitched a full season in two years due to Tommy John surgery, but the plan is to have him be able to throw five innings at the start of the season. Bobby and McDowell will have to be careful with his arm, and I expect a pitch count for most of the season, so probably no complete games any time soon. One of the biggest helps to this team will be a full season of Chuck James, the rookie who led the Braves in wins after the all-star break last year. Everywhere I turn there is some sportswriter doubting James can repeat because he just doesn’t have the stuff and calling his 100+ innings a fluke. At every level James has had doubters and at every level he has succeeded (Career 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the minors). I’ll say this to all of them; for the past almost decade and a half I have watched Tom Glavine compile soon to be 300 wins with the same high 80’s fastball and great change. The last rotation spot seems to be far from decided after Kyle Davies’ woes on the mound in ’06. but he seems to be the favorite. Lance Cormier, who posted a 3.25 ERA in his last 5 starts for the Braves as well as Anthony Lerew and Matt Harrison are all competing with Davies. Harrison has yet to play a full season above A-ball, so he is probably out of the picture. Cormier and Lerew, who has completely re-worked his mechanics after posting a 7.48 ERA in AAA, could both see themselves move into the fifth spot on the depth chart if Davies can’t return to form. Peter Gammons recently said it and I’ll repeat it; This could be the NL East’s best rotation.

The Braves finished 19 games out of first last year. Last year they were also using Chris Reitsma, Ken Ray, and Jorge Sosa as the closer. Those three by the way, combined to convert 17 of 27 save opportunities. Now Bobby can turn to Rafael Soriano (2.25 ERA), Mike Gonzalez, (2.17 ERA), and Bob Wickman (2.67 ERA) for the final three innings. That group combined to convert 59 of 67 save opportunities including 24/24 from Gonzalez and 18/19 for Wickman in a Braves uniform. Those three headline arguably the NL’s top rotation, but the depth is just as impressive. The only two other guaranteed spots belong to Macay McBride, who held lefties to a .176 clip and Oscar Villareal, whose versatility as a long man, spot starter, or middle reliever has earned him a spot. That leaves Lance Cormier, Tyler Yates, Joey Devine, Chad Paronto, Phil Stockman, Peter Moylan, and Anthony Lerew as the legitimate candidates for the final two spots. Yates seems to have the inside track on one of these spots after holding batters to a .228 average while taking over the setup role. If he can cut down his free passes (31 in 50 IP) then he should become a very good middle reliever. That leaves 6 legitimate candidates for the final spot. Lerew will probably start the year at AAA to prove he is capable of being effective in a competitive atmosphere after last year and it looks like if Cormier doesn’t win a starting job they will keep him starting in AAA as insurance so we don’t have to call on any more Travis Smiths to fill in. That leaves us with Paronto, Stockman, Moylan, and Devine. Paronto headed into camp as the favorite because of his hard sinker that makes him a good double play guy in the mold of Kevin Gryboski. I am going to go against the grain here though and pick Joey Devine to get the last spot. 2005 ended with a bad note for him (gave up walk off to Chris Burke after 18 innings in NLDS) and ’06 was forfeited to a nagging back injury but he gave his chances a boost after his September. After the callup, Devine appeared in 8 games, and in his 5 IP he gave up 3 hits, 4 walks, no runs, and struck out 8. No one knows yet how exactly this pen will look on opening day, but needless to say, Roger McDowell has a lot more talent and depth to work with.

Four Braves on BA's Top 100

Baseball America's top 100 prospect list was released on Thursday and four Braves made the cut.

36 JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA, c, Braves
Wrist injury led to an off year in 2006, but he's still the game's best catching prospect
Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008

65 ELVIS ANDRUS, ss, Braves
Kept his head above water in low Class A at age 17, and he has offensive potential to go with plus defense and speed
Opening Day Age: 18. ETA: 2010

90 MATT HARRISON, lhp, Braves
The closest thing Atlanta has had to Tom Glavine since Glavine left as a free agent
Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008

93 BRENT LILLIBRIDGE, ss, Braves
An underrated part of the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal, he could fill Atlanta's second-base void
Opening Day Age: 23. ETA: 2008


One thing in particular stands out to me. Eric Campbell didn't make the list. Most Braves top prospect lists have Campbell somewhere in the top 4 and Baseball Prospectus says he could provide 30-40 HRs from second base so I don't see why there were 4 Braves on here and not him. I like the Harrison comparison, but Chuck James looks like a younger version of Glavine. I wouldn't say no to two of them though. I will be starting my top 20 prospects list at some time this weekend since this serves as a perfect transition.

Braves Bits

-The Braves are now 1-0 in Grapefruit League play after they defeated the Dodgers 7-2. Kyle Davies pitched two perfect innings while striking out one in his spring debut and said he felt great. Yunel Escobar went 2/2, Salty drove in two with a single, and Kelly Johnson handled four defensive outs while leading off the game with a single and driving in a run with a sac fly.


-Chino Cadahia, the Braves new bench coach, flipped his car this morning on the way to Disney Wide World of Spots after someone ran a red light and clipped him. Terry Pendleton, who saw the accident helped to pull the 49 year old bench coach out of his car. Cadahia escaped with only a few cuts and bruises on his arm.

Hampton Not 100%

Dave O'Brien at AJC, reported that Mike Hampton mixed in breaking pitches in his bullpen session for the first time since this past fall. Bobby Cox seemed quite happy with the results but we never seem to hear him say one of his pitchers was throwing poorly. Hampton had a much less optimistic view of his performance saying this:

"I'm not ready right now"

"I don't feel like I could go out there for 30 pitches and consistently let all my pitches go with confidence that everything's going to be all right."

"I'm not getting on the mound till I can help the team,"

While it isn't good to hear that Hampton isn't 100%, at least he isn't being rushed back before he is ready. This team's chances really hinge on a healthy Hampton, who can throw at least 170 innings so if we have to start the year with Lance Cormier that would be fine. Fortunately it looks like he will only miss a couple weeks of spring training and it sounds like the plan is for him to be able to go out for five innings at the beginning of the regular season. Last year that would have been bad news but with this rebuilt pen, I feel a bit safer than I would.

Braves Win Spring Training Opener

The Braves took on Georgia Tech today in their exhibition opener and extended their winning streak to 19 against GT. Last year the Braves no hit Georgia Tech with five pitchers but today the Yellow Jackets' Wally Crancer and Brad Felte recorded hits in the 5-0 loss to the Braves. Matt Harrison and Kevin Barry combined for the first four scoreless innings and 7 strikeouts while Ryan Langerhans' third-inning homer off Jared Hyatt provided the offensive boost. The Braves will send Kyle Davies to the mound on Thursday in their first Grapefruit League game when they begin their first of a two game set with the Dodgers. Here are what some of the players fighting for roster spots did.

Joey Devine- 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K
Anthony Lerew- 1 IP, 0 H, K
Kelly Johnson- 0/1
Martin Prado- 1/3, 1 R
Yunel Escobar- 2/3, 1 R
Gregor Blanco- 0/2, 1 BB, 1 R

2007 Braves: Offense

The Braves were one of the top scoring teams in the NL even with our 6-win June, Chipper and McCann's injuries, and no real leadoff man. So when I hear people saying that the Laroche trade killed our offense and the doubters about the right side of our infield I feel I need to respond. The skeptics of Kelly Johnson at second may have a point about his defense but you can’t knock his bat. He may not have the speed of Jose Reyes or the plate discipline of Kevin Youkilis but he is a perfect option for the top of the lineup. He is a .281 career minor league hitter with a .366 OBP and capable of double digits in homers and steals. By the way, that OBP is higher than the likes of Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, David Eckstein, Johnny Damon, Hanley Ramirez, and a host of other notable leadoff men. We aren’t looking at one of the flashiest leadoff men here, but he will be effective.

Renteria did tail off a bit last year but you can’t complain about the overall stats. His ability to drive the ball to the opposite field is a great asset and I don’t really see a more perfect number two hitter besides Derek Jeter in baseball today. I was a bit skeptical after the Red Sox catastrophe with him, but I think you can all agree that watching Marte flop and Renteria bounce back gave us only more confidence in the genius of John Schuerholz.

We haven’t seen Chipper in 140 games sine ’03 but hopefully these new cleats that Chipper will be donning will help his chronic foot problem and get him back out for 140 games like he is predicting. If you stretch his stats to 140 games, Chipper would have landed himself smack dab in the middle of the MVP race. People seem to overlook that in just over 400 Abs he hit .324 with an OPS of 1.005. I would be happy with 130 games from Chipper and Aybar playing the rest. Aybar seems to be capable of a .300 average so we should get pretty solid production even on his days of rest. At 130 games at last year’s rate we are looking at around 31 homers and 102 RBIs, but with a capable leadoff man in front of him I see no reason why that number shouldn’t hit 115. That would certainly be near the top of the list for third basemen.

Hopefully this won’t be the last year of our cleanup hitter, but I guess we have to prepare for the worst. Fortunately after dropping ten pounds and going into his contract year I think we may see a career year for Andruw. After watching Soriano tear up RFK in his walk year I guess my hopes may be a bit too high, but this is as good a year as ever for Andruw to make another run at that MVP. In ’05 he had his monster power year, last year he actually started hitting with runners on, and this year if he could put it all together, is 50 HRs and 150 RBIs too far out of the question? His defense is one of the only constants this team has experienced lately and even though people put him down outside of the organization for being bigger than his younger years, he still makes it look easy and is in a class of his own defensively (although Ichiro may give him a run in his first year in center).

In ’05 Francoeur was the wonder child of Atlanta and last year it was McCann with good reason. Catcher isn’t a position where much is traditionally expected offensively, but with the best offensive catcher in baseball, I think we are officially spoiled. Brian supposedly added some upper body strength this offseason and if he stays healthy I think he can hit .320 with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs at least. Salty has already been pushed out of Atlanta’s future plans behind the plate so McCann must be doing something right.

I guess I can’t really be too disappointed in his .293 OBP after Frenchy hit 29 HRs, knocked in 103. His step forward this year is that he became the guy all of the Braves fans wanted up when the game was on the line. The most interesting news that has gone under the radar is the Terry Pendleton is working on a new stance with Jeff that would widen his base and keep his head from moving as much. Sound familiar? It is very close to what TP did with Andruw that led to his breakout year in ’05. I am not saying Francoeur will hit 50+ homers next year, but maybe we could see a surge in power to the 40 HR mark? One can always hope.

Thorman is a personal favorite of mine, so I seem to be a little higher on him than most. I wasn’t that impressed in his time in Atlanta, but his track record tells us he should improve drastically now that he is in his second year here. His first year in A+ he hit .243, the next year it was up to .299; his first year in AA he hit .252, the second it shot up to .305; his first year in AAA it was .276, last year it rose to .298 and now his first taste of the majors he hit .234. Are you sensing a pattern here? He may not hit 30 HRs or .300, but I don’t think .280 with 25 HRs is out of the question. The power is definitely there and it is nice to see a player that runs every ball out for a change. Early sleeper for Rookie of the Year in my opinion.

The left field spot would take too much time to get into all the candidates with Diaz, Wilson, and Langerhans as the favorites to get the majority of the playing time out there. Instead I am going to focus on a guy who is the underdog at spring training; Gregor Blanco. I have always been a fan of having almost a second leadoff man in the last spot. Get on, steal a base maybe, get bunted over, and now the leadoff man is a hit away from another run. We would sacrifice any power but would have a number eight hitter who hit .290 with a .403 OBP in AAA last year and over 30 steals. One thing that Blanco doesn’t bring to the table that Wilson would… that awesome mullet.