2007 Braves: Pitching

Atlanta’s pitching last year was certainly the weak link. Mike Hampton was out all year, Tim Hudson turned in a mediocre season, while John Thompson, Kyle Davies, Horacio Ramirez, and Chris Reitsma all missed significant time due to injuries. This spring brings with it a rejuvenated sense of hope after last year’s staff posted a 4.60 ERA to go with the league’s worst save percentage.

A healthy rotation is part of this hope. Smoltz will be the ace once again and with a pen to hold his leads, I am going to go out on a limb and say he wins 20. This entire season may hinge on our two and three starters though. Hudson took a turn for the worst last year. After posting a 3.52 ERA his first year in Atlanta, he plummeted in ’06 with a 4.86 ERA. Hudson says his new conditioning will help and we can only hope he returns to form. Hampton is probably the biggest question mark on this team and his recent comments aren’t too encouraging. Hampton hasn’t pitched a full season in two years due to Tommy John surgery, but the plan is to have him be able to throw five innings at the start of the season. Bobby and McDowell will have to be careful with his arm, and I expect a pitch count for most of the season, so probably no complete games any time soon. One of the biggest helps to this team will be a full season of Chuck James, the rookie who led the Braves in wins after the all-star break last year. Everywhere I turn there is some sportswriter doubting James can repeat because he just doesn’t have the stuff and calling his 100+ innings a fluke. At every level James has had doubters and at every level he has succeeded (Career 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the minors). I’ll say this to all of them; for the past almost decade and a half I have watched Tom Glavine compile soon to be 300 wins with the same high 80’s fastball and great change. The last rotation spot seems to be far from decided after Kyle Davies’ woes on the mound in ’06. but he seems to be the favorite. Lance Cormier, who posted a 3.25 ERA in his last 5 starts for the Braves as well as Anthony Lerew and Matt Harrison are all competing with Davies. Harrison has yet to play a full season above A-ball, so he is probably out of the picture. Cormier and Lerew, who has completely re-worked his mechanics after posting a 7.48 ERA in AAA, could both see themselves move into the fifth spot on the depth chart if Davies can’t return to form. Peter Gammons recently said it and I’ll repeat it; This could be the NL East’s best rotation.

The Braves finished 19 games out of first last year. Last year they were also using Chris Reitsma, Ken Ray, and Jorge Sosa as the closer. Those three by the way, combined to convert 17 of 27 save opportunities. Now Bobby can turn to Rafael Soriano (2.25 ERA), Mike Gonzalez, (2.17 ERA), and Bob Wickman (2.67 ERA) for the final three innings. That group combined to convert 59 of 67 save opportunities including 24/24 from Gonzalez and 18/19 for Wickman in a Braves uniform. Those three headline arguably the NL’s top rotation, but the depth is just as impressive. The only two other guaranteed spots belong to Macay McBride, who held lefties to a .176 clip and Oscar Villareal, whose versatility as a long man, spot starter, or middle reliever has earned him a spot. That leaves Lance Cormier, Tyler Yates, Joey Devine, Chad Paronto, Phil Stockman, Peter Moylan, and Anthony Lerew as the legitimate candidates for the final two spots. Yates seems to have the inside track on one of these spots after holding batters to a .228 average while taking over the setup role. If he can cut down his free passes (31 in 50 IP) then he should become a very good middle reliever. That leaves 6 legitimate candidates for the final spot. Lerew will probably start the year at AAA to prove he is capable of being effective in a competitive atmosphere after last year and it looks like if Cormier doesn’t win a starting job they will keep him starting in AAA as insurance so we don’t have to call on any more Travis Smiths to fill in. That leaves us with Paronto, Stockman, Moylan, and Devine. Paronto headed into camp as the favorite because of his hard sinker that makes him a good double play guy in the mold of Kevin Gryboski. I am going to go against the grain here though and pick Joey Devine to get the last spot. 2005 ended with a bad note for him (gave up walk off to Chris Burke after 18 innings in NLDS) and ’06 was forfeited to a nagging back injury but he gave his chances a boost after his September. After the callup, Devine appeared in 8 games, and in his 5 IP he gave up 3 hits, 4 walks, no runs, and struck out 8. No one knows yet how exactly this pen will look on opening day, but needless to say, Roger McDowell has a lot more talent and depth to work with.