Friday, March 2, 2007

Top Prospects: 1-5

Baseball America's release of the top 100 prospect lists seems to be a perfect way to move into Tomahawk Mania's top Braves Prospects. I will be talking about the top ten in two parts, but you can find the whole list one the right side of the page. Atlanta, throughout that past 15 years has always seemed to annually have one of the best farm systems in the game under the watchful eye of John Schuerholz. In 2005, the Braves graduated 18 prospects in the year of the Baby Braves led by Kyle Davies, Jeff Francouer, and Brian McCann. Now the Braves system has dropped all the way to 14th in baseball, according to the Baseball Prospectus organizational reports, but there is hope. While there are not many impact prospects in the higher level, there are lower level players, in particular pitchers, who have very high ceilings.

1. 2B Eric Campbell- This 21 year old can thank Van Pope for the number one ranking. The emergence of Pope's bat along with his superior defense pushed Campbell over to second this winter and a future .290 hitter with potentially 30 or even 40 HRs at second base is a bit harder to find then at third. He took a big step forward defensively last year, although he still isn't a future gold glover. After being taken in the second round of the 2004 draft, Campbell broke out in '05 with a .313 average and a .634 SLG and continued that this past year hitting .296 with a .517 SLG and 22 HRs for Rome. Campbell will have a huge test in 2007, as he will likely start the year in the pitcher-friendly confines of Myrtle Beach. If he keeps progressing at this level then we could see him in Atlanta at some point in 2009.

2. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia- Saltalamacchia stands to drop his stock in the same way Campbell's shot up. I think it is fair to say that McCann has secured his future behind the plate in Atlanta, so Salty will either make a move to the outfield or firstbase, or stay behind the plate and keep his value up as possible trade bait. After conquering Myrtle Beach in '05 with a .314 average and 19 HRs, Saltalamacchia struggled through wrist injuries the majority of last season and focused a lot more of his time on improving his defense behind the plate. There is a silver lining though; in his last 22 games, Salty hit .310 with 5 HRs , and in the Arizona Fall League he hit .565 with 3 HRs in 23 ABs. If he stays behind the plate and regains his form this year at Richmond then he very well could land himself in the top spot next year.

3. SS Elvis Andrus- The .265/.324/.362 line that Elvis posted in 2006 isn't too impressive at first sight, until you take into account that he was a 17 year old in A-Ball. Not sure too many high school juniors could keep up with that. In his short pro career, Andrus has drawn comparisons to Jimmy Rollins, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Tejada, so no one knows exactly how he will turn out, only that he will be really good. Andrus has very good speed at this point, but lacks the base running skills to put it into use with only 23 SBs and 15 CSs last year. There a couple prospect experts who think he'll fill out his 6' frame and become more of a power hitting shortstop with less speed. Right now he has defensive tools that haven't translated into success yet. His range, hands, and arm strength all rate as plus tools. Andrus has got a couple more years in the minors before we can even think about seeing him in Atlanta, but by the time Renteria’s time is up in 2010 ('09 is a club option), he might be ready to take up the reigns.

4. SS Brent Lillibridge- He may in time prove to be the most valuable long-term commodity acquired in the Adam Laroche trade. Lillibridge is one of the more under appreciated prospects in the game, as he is a bit old for his league at 23 in A+, but he is a supremely talented athlete. Lillibridge has the same problem as Saltalamacchia in that he is not #1 on the organizational depth chart at his natural position. Many scouts believe that a move to center is a possibility with his speed, and the possibility of Andruw Jones leaving looming overhead. Lillibridge combines good contact, patience, power, and great speed and base running ability (53 SBs in 66 attempts in '06) so he seems to be headed for a leadoff role. He is a good defender, who tries to hard and makes too many errors because of that, but that should go away with experience. His power dropped from 11 HRs in 274 ABs in A-ball to 2 HRs in 201 ABs in A+ and there are quite a few scouts who believe that his 2 HRs may be more indicative of his ability. Down the road we could see a .280-.290 hitter with double digit HRs, 40+ steals, and a great OBP, which would make for a great leadoff hitter. If Andruw does leave after this season and Brent moves out to center, then we could see him starting as early as 2008. Lillibridge has been good for a nice laugh so far in his short Braves career.

5. LHP Matt Harrison- The 6'4" Harrison was the Braves 3rd round pick in the 2003 amateur draft out of a high school in North Carolina. Baseball America recently called him the closest thing to Tom Glavine since Glavine signed with the Mets. While I would say that Chuck James takes that, it gives you a good idea what we are working with. He, along with Jamie Richmond are the two Braves control pitchers. Harrison combines a fastball that works right around 90 mph along with a good change and curve. He tired towards the end of 2006 in Mississippi but posted good stats, going 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA, 114 Ks and only 33 BBs in almost 160 innings of work. Harrison will probably earn a spot in the rotation out of spring training but if there is an injury, which seems very likely this season, he could force his way into the Braves plans a bit early.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

FYI

Salty never played in the Hawaiian Winter League. He did his damage in the Arizona Fall League the past two years.

Will Schaffer said...

lapse on my part, thanks for pointing it out, I've fixed it